US Banks Ride Anthropic IPO Hopes Amid SpaceX Revenue Fade

Bank Earnings Report

Major US banks report third-quarter earnings this week after a strong first half fueled by a SpaceX-fueled boost. However, the outlook for the fourth quarter is more fragile due to potential delays in the Anthropic IPO and an AI-led rally.

Wealth Management Strength

Goldman Sachs' wealth unit gathered a record $148 billion in net new assets, with more than half coming from IPO-related flows. This suggests that wealth management will remain a strong point for the bank.

Investment Banking Uncertainty

In contrast, investment banking and trading may prove choppier, with global investment banking fees falling 19% from the second quarter. Fees remain up 12% for the first nine months of the year.

Market Uncertainty

The gap between banks that benefit from the Anthropic IPO and those that do not is partly due to how OpenAI and Anthropic count cloud-partner sales. Banks also structure bonds and securitizations that fund data center buildouts, which could be affected by slower AI spending.

Market Reaction

The Nasdaq 100 fell more than 300 points last Thursday after a report of lower OpenAI revenue, highlighting the uncertainty in the market. Credit quality remains pristine, so investors will listen for early signs of slippage in Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley shares.