Too Late for Bitcoin, XRP, and NEAR? Wintermute Says Bull Cycle Is Just Starting

Key Takeaways

• The global bull trend in digital assets is still in its early stages.
• The current three-month altcoin rally has reached a mature phase.
• Bitcoin's further advance is now being driven by traditional market conditions.
• The market is waiting for the U.S. midterm elections to clear the way for new highs.

Market & Token Impact

• Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 grows, creating a hidden macroeconomic risk for the crypto market if stocks fall.
• The altcoin index fell 1.1%, recording its first weekly decline since early August.
• Fundamentally strong projects have spent the past 14 days moving sideways, while a dangerous surge has begun in low-cap, low-quality tokens.

Broader Context & What's Next

• The lull in NEAR and XRP represents healthy consolidation.
• The long-term anatomy of the trend fully supports the view that this bull cycle is only beginning.
• The market is waiting for November 3, when the U.S. midterm elections will reduce uncertainty around Treasury bonds and clear the way for new highs.
• Wintermute analysts assess market maturity by tracking changes in the top 250 cryptocurrencies, where new technology names are replacing the heavyweights of past years.
• The rotation echoes patterns from previous years, meaning altcoins have every chance of establishing themselves as full-fledged blue chips in the current cycle.
• The current local wave appears exhausted, and buying low-quality coins at this stage is a classic trap for latecomers.
• The bull cycle is expected to continue, with Bitcoin's next target being the $90,000-$95,000 range.
• Retail investors' euphoric positioning ran into a wall of profit-taking earlier this year, but the current market offers an important clue for investors who think it is already too late to enter positions in NEAR, XRP, ARB, or ZEC.