TD Cowen raises Bitcoin price target to $280,000 by 2029

Bitcoin Price Target Raised to $280,000 by 2029

TD Cowen has raised its long-range Bitcoin forecast, setting a 2029 price target of $280,000. The firm's analyst, Lance Vitanza, estimates Bitcoin could appreciate by 20% to 30% annually, and the $280,000 target follows from that range.

The Catalyst Behind the Call

The catalyst, per the firm, was Bitcoin's third quarter. It closed Q3 2026 around $76,000, beating some of the assumptions TD Cowen had built into its earlier models.

Why the Treasury Company Angle Matters

TD Cowen pointed to capital markets structures tied to Bitcoin treasury companies as a growing trend, noting that institutional attitudes have shifted toward exposure strategies rather than simply buying and holding coins.

Potential Outperformance for Treasury Companies

The firm expects potential 50% outperformance for well-managed Bitcoin treasury companies compared with spot Bitcoin holdings.

Dilution Problem at Strategy

TD Cowen expects that Strategy's stock issuance could weigh on per-share gains, offsetting some of the benefit from a rising Bitcoin price. When a treasury company sells new shares to fund more Bitcoin purchases, total holdings rise, but existing shareholders own a smaller piece of the larger pile.

Key Markers to Track

For investors weighing Strategy against spot Bitcoin, TD Cowen sees real potential in treasury companies, yet also flags dilution as a drag on Strategy specifically. The thesis that managed treasury vehicles can beat direct ownership depends on disciplined capital raising.