October 15th 2026, 1:00 AM
S&P 500 Enters Strongest Seasonal Window Amid Inflation Fears
Key Summary
The S&P 500 has entered its strongest seasonal window since 1950, with a 80% success rate in years where the index rose from mid-October to year-end. However, hotter US inflation is testing this record, with the index falling 0.75% after recently hitting record highs. Experts say that a strong 2026 and expected third-quarter earnings growth of 29.2% give seasonality a fundamental base, but whether earnings can outrun 5% Treasury yields will likely decide the outcome.
Please see our real time news feed on our Home Page
The S&P 500 Seasonal Window
The S&P 500 seasonal window opened on Wednesday, marking the start of the best 60 days of the year for stocks. Since 1950, the index has risen from mid-October to year-end in 80% of years. However, hotter US inflation is testing that record on day one.Historical Context
Charles Edwards, Capriole Investments founder and BeInCrypto Market Intelligence Expert Council member, flagged the date Wednesday as the start of the best 60 days of the year for stocks. Edwards cited a chart showing average yearly path bottoming near October 14, which backs up his claim.Expert Analysis
Kyle Doops, Crypto Banter host and fellow Council member, compared 2026 with the 30-year average, noting that the average dips into mid-October, then climbs through December. Doops also noted that the S&P500 usually shows increased strength into end of year when comparing with the last 30 years.Risks and Opportunities
History favors strong years, with the index entering the window up 10% to 20% finishing higher in 21 of 25 cases. Gains also cluster in one month, with November rising in 13 of the last 14 years. However, the risks are concrete, with September inflation data showing prices up 3.7% year-on-year, above forecasts.- \1\1\1\1
#S#US#Inflation#Seasonality