Schwab Strategist Warns a Single Mega-Cap Capex Miss Could Disrupt the AI-Driven Market

Key Summary

Schwab strategist Kevin Gordon warns that a single mega-cap capex miss could disrupt the AI-driven market, as the S&P 500 sits 1% below its high despite a 14% average peak-to-trough drop. AI stocks carry the index, with valuation worries and public pushback fading. Gordon notes that earnings disruption could begin if mega-caps post a miss, paired with pared-back budgets, citing that "it's no longer earning season, it's CapEx season." FactSet projects 32.4% S&P 500 earnings growth for 2026, while Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok warns of AI debt risk.