Samsung Heads Into Q3 Earnings With 5 Open Questions About Its Chip Boom

#Q3Earnings Samsung Electronics will publish preliminary Q3 earnings guidance on Thursday, with analysts expecting a record profit. The company's operating profit is expected to reach nearly nine times the 12.17 trillion won it earned a year earlier.

##Demand for AI Infrastructure Demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure is still outpacing memory supply, leaving investors questioning whether chip margins have topped out. The LSEG SmartEstimate, based on 21 analysts, has dropped 7.7% since the end of August.

##Memory Margins Stuck at 76% Samsung's Q3 memory operating margin is expected to remain unchanged at 76%, according to SK Securities analyst Han Dong-hee. This would leave it unchanged from the April to June period.

##DRAM Prices to Slow Down TrendForce expects the slowdown in memory price gains to continue into Q4, with conventional DRAM contract prices rising 10% to 15% over Q3. Long-term supply deals are partly to blame for the slowdown.

##Samsung Gains on SK Hynix in HBM Market Samsung has been gaining ground on SK Hynix in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market, with larger shipments of its latest HBM4 chips helping it recover lost ground. J.P. Morgan estimates show how far Samsung's recovery could go, with its HBM market share forecast to rise to 34% in 2026.

##Impact on Samsung Stock Samsung's preliminary guidance will provide the first answer to its profit question, while the other four points will be addressed through analyst estimates, industry data, and market trends. The company's stock has been volatile, with shares falling 6.92% in July despite a record Q2 operating profit. The stock is now up 111.48% so far in 2026.