Robinhood Revealed a $25 Million Bitcoin Buy as Its Stock Fell. Here’s What Q3’s Crypto Volume Says About the Stock

Q3 Crypto Volume Analysis

Robinhood's Q3 crypto volume has reached $45 billion, with six days uncounted, already above Q2's $40 billion. This represents a significant rebound from the October 7 selloff, which saw Bitcoin fall below $83,000. The company's notional volume, which includes both its app and Bitstamp, was $10.9 billion in July and $17.5 billion in August.

Robinhood's Crypto Business Strategy

Robinhood's CEO, Vlad Tenev, believes the company's crypto business is significant and offers a complete solution for crypto traders. He has unveiled perpetual futures, spot, and prediction markets in one place, which he sees as a key differentiator. The company has also stopped offering new sports contracts in Michigan and must close remaining positions by October 9.

Regulatory Risks and Upside Potential

The primary risk facing Robinhood is regulation, particularly with regards to its sports contracts and tokenized stocks. However, if crypto volume climbs back toward last year's levels, the company's revenue growth could be easier to achieve. Analysts expect $1.41 billion in total Q3 revenue, with a net income margin near 43%.

Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets

Wall Street's mean target is around $134 across 28 estimates, with ratings at 18 Buy, 6 Outperform, 4 Hold, 1 Underperform, and 1 Sell. The company's valuation model, TIKR, allows users to forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute.