Quantum Physics Firm Claims 30,000 Qubits Can Crack Bitcoin Keys
Key Summary
Quantum computing firm Alice & Bob released a preprint estimating that roughly 30,000 cat qubits could crack the secp256k1 elliptic curve behind Bitcoin signatures in about an hour. The calculations target over 1.7M BTC sitting in vulnerable legacy scripts, prompting industry developers to push for protocol upgrades.
Key Bullets
- Alice & Bob published a preprint claiming 29,588 physical cat qubits could crack a Bitcoin private key in 61.8 minutes.
- Google Quantum AI previously estimated needing under 500,000 physical qubits to crack a wallet key in nine minutes.
- On-chain data shows more than 1,700,000 BTC remain vulnerable inside legacy P2PK scripts exposed on public ledgers.
- Developers proposed BIP-361 to phase out and freeze quantum-vulnerable legacy addresses before hardware milestones arrive in the 2030s.
Alice & Bob Details One Hour Key Crack
Quantum computing firm Alice & Bob released a preprint Thursday on the IACR Cryptology ePrint Archive stating that approximately 30,000 of its proprietary cat qubits could compromise a Bitcoin private key in roughly sixty minutes. The research paper targets secp256k1, the specific elliptic curve governing Bitcoin cryptographic signatures, pinning the hardware requirement at 29,588 physical qubits and an execution window of 61.8 minutes. Cat qubits suppress bit-flip errors directly within hardware architecture, cutting the total volume of physical units needed to maintain error-corrected logical qubits.
The estimated timeline exceeds Bitcoin target block times of 10 minutes, leaving real-time transactions out of immediate reach for this specific attack vector. Older coin vaults face severe exposure risks. Public on-chain records show over 1,700,000 BTC resting inside early Pay-to-Public-Key scripts that leave actual public keys exposed. Liquidity vanished from several sentiment gauges as long-term holders reviewed archival wallet exposure.
Google Researchers Map Out Faster Nine Minute Attack
Google Quantum AI published a separate whitepaper outlining two distinct attack vectors against cryptographic ledgers, separating real-time on-spend threats from static at-rest targets. Primed hardware configurations using Google architecture would require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits to crack a targeted wallet key in approximately nine minutes once a public key surfaces on-chain. That accelerated speed brings the attack window well inside normal block validation periods.
Engineering milestones remain distant for both competing computing designs. Alice & Bob reported building a 12-qubit chip under the French government PROQCIMA program, falling well short of error-correction thresholds. Hardware developers expect scaling convergence during the early 2030s.
Developers Push BIP-361 To Defend Legacy Addresses
Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp and five co-authors introduced BIP-361 to counteract anticipated hardware advances by freezing quantum-vulnerable legacy addresses in structured phases. Core contributors face mounting pressure to upgrade network parameters before fault-tolerant machines achieve commercial viability. Markets absorbed the technical preprint without immediate panic pricing.
Protocol security hinges on proactive migration schedules. Traders ignored short-term noise and focused on long-term signature deprecation schedules.
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