Nvidia Stands Firm Amid AI Credit Worries

Market Concerns

The bond market has started asking awkward questions about the AI buildout. Oracle and Broadcom are feeling it in their share prices. Nvidia, so far, mostly isn't.

What the Credit Market is Signaling

A credit default swap, or CDS, works like an insurance policy on a company's debt. If you hold the bonds and worry the issuer might not pay, you buy protection. The price of that protection is quoted as a spread in basis points, where 100 basis points equals one percentage point. When the spread rises, traders are paying more to hedge against default.

Since mid-2026, those spreads have been climbing for major tech firms tied to the AI capital spending boom. Nearly $500 billion in AI-related borrowing is expected as of 2026. Oracle and Broadcom are among the companies that have tapped debt markets to fund the push.

Rising Credit Spreads

By early October 2026, the strain showed up clearly in the numbers. Broadcom's five-year CDS hit a new high of 136 basis points. Oracle's reached a record 261 basis points, with both moves following fresh financing announcements.

Comparison to Nvidia

Nvidia's five-year CDS hit a record near 82 basis points in late July 2026, a level that came with a default probability of over 7%. Since then, Nvidia's spreads have stayed elevated in a range of 80 to 87 basis points, still far below where Oracle and Broadcom now trade. Its stock has performed relatively steadily year-to-date while the other two have stumbled.

Industry-Wide Concerns

Oracle and Broadcom are borrowing heavily to build and finance the infrastructure itself. If the returns on that infrastructure disappoint, the debt stays on their books regardless.

Industry Trend

CDS spreads for Meta and Alphabet set records in July 2026, a sign that worry about AI financing spread across the industry rather than staying confined to a single balance sheet.

The market is no longer treating all AI infrastructure names as one trade. Companies carrying heavier debt loads are being scrutinized more harshly, while those with stronger balance sheets, like Nvidia, are getting more favorable treatment.

Risks for Nvidia

The risk for Nvidia is that its resilience depends partly on its customers' ability to keep spending. If borrowing costs keep climbing for the companies building data centers, that spending could come under pressure. Nvidia's own record CDS level in July suggests credit markets have not entirely ruled that out.

Key Indicators to Track

For Oracle and Broadcom, every new funding announcement has, so far, pushed spreads higher rather than reassuring lenders. Key indicators to track include whether Broadcom and Oracle spreads keep setting new highs with each financing round, whether Nvidia's spreads break out of their 80 to 87 basis point range, and whether the record CDS levels at Meta and Alphabet translate into the kind of equity weakness Oracle has already seen.