Morgan Stanley Predicts $10T Tokenized Market by 2030

Market Outlook

Morgan Stanley's Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Amy Oldenburg, presented a forecast for the tokenized real-world assets market at the TOKEN2049 conference on October 12, 2026. The firm estimates the market could reach $3 trillion to $10 trillion by 2030.

Current Market Composition

The current market is dominated by tokenized US Treasuries, accounting for about $14.6 billion of the on-chain RWA market. Tokenized equities are also present, but Morgan Stanley has pushed back its timeline for supporting tokenized equities on its alternative trading system (ATS) to Q1 2027.

Growth Drivers

Morgan Stanley attributes the expected growth to rising institutional interest and a mutual reinforcement effect in finance. The logic is that more tokenized products attract more institutional users, which in turn justifies more infrastructure, making it easier to issue more products.

Key Use Cases

The firm forecasts total collateral mobility at $1.7T and treasury management at $400B by 2030. Private shares, structured notes, and investment funds are identified as key candidates for efficiency gains through tokenization.

Uncertainty and Milestones

The gap between Morgan Stanley's base-case forecast and its range of $3 trillion to $10 trillion reflects real uncertainty about adoption speed. The Q1 2027 ATS date is a key milestone, and if Morgan Stanley hits it, that would suggest institutional demand has started to materialize. Another delay would suggest the market is moving slower than the bank's rhetoric.