MNX Futures Contracts Set New Standard for Private Valuations

Introduction

MNX, a decentralized futures exchange, has launched valuation futures contracts on OpenAI and Anthropic, targeting the thin liquidity and rare public reference points of these companies.

How the Contracts Work

Every contract expires on December 31, 2027, and is settled based on the company's market capitalization at the time of listing or the last qualifying public valuation. Prices are set through order-book trading, and leverage is tiered, with a maximum of 3x. Traders must post a third of the position's value upfront as initial margin.

Beta and Backers

The October launch followed a beta phase that kicked off in September 2026. OpenAI's futures initially marked its valuation at around $1.64 trillion, while Anthropic's valuation was approximately 20% higher. MNX was developed by Manifold Markets co-founders Stephen Grugett and Ian Philips, who raised $6.4 million in a pre-seed round at a $40 million valuation.

Platform Details

The platform runs non-custodially on the MegaETH blockchain, meaning users keep control of their own funds. Orders are matched through batch auctions, and one notable restriction is that MNX excludes US users at launch.

Risks and Settlement

The risks are real, with thin liquidity meaning prices can move sharply on modest order flow. Settlement also depends on events nobody controls, such as whether OpenAI or Anthropic lists before 2028. The research frames MNX's approach as potentially innovative and a possible foundation for more AI-focused financial products.

Key Entities

OpenAI, Anthropic, MNX, Manifold Markets, Stephen Grugett, Ian Philips

Narrative Theme

Regulatory Enforcement

Impact Score

3

Key Takeaways

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Image Prompt

A screenshot of the MNX platform displaying the valuation futures contracts on OpenAI and Anthropic, with a focus on the internal EMA settlement mechanism and the maximum leverage of 3x.