MARA’s CEO Expects Two AI Leases by Year-End. Here’s What the Stock Needs to Show Before December 31
Key Summary
MARA Holdings CEO expects to sign two AI leases by year-end, but the company's stock needs to demonstrate progress on these leases to justify its current valuation. The company's revenue and earnings have been impacted by the recent decline in bitcoin prices and the IPO of Nvidia-backed Firmus, leading to a 12.53% decline in its stock price. A signed lease would be a key milestone for the company, and two signed leases could provide revenue for analysts to model behind the $19 average target.
MARA CEO Sees AI Leases by Year-End, Stock Needs Visibility on Leases
Current Market Conditions
MARA Holdings closed at $9.91 on October 8, 2026, down 4.34% from its September 30 close of $11.33. The decline was part of a broader market downturn, with bitcoin briefly falling below $81,000 and Treasury yields spiking.
Company Guidance
The company's CEO, Fred Thiel, has guided to two AI leases by year-end, which would be a key milestone for the company. Thiel has reaffirmed this target at previous conferences, including the H.C. Wainwright conference on September 14.
Leases and Revenue
Thiel is pricing for a mix of tenants, with yields ranging from 10% for hyperscalers to 15% for neocloud providers. A signed lease would provide revenue for analysts to model behind the $19 average target. One lease or none could leave the company priced closer to JPMorgan's $11.
Regulatory Update
The company's Long Ridge gas plant in Ohio is still awaiting approval from the federal power regulator, FERC. If the deal is not approved by November 30, 2026, it can be terminated by June 30, 2027.
Analyst Estimates
Clear Street has a Hold rating and $10 target on MARA, with a first signed lease and the Long Ridge close as its next milestones. Lookonchain has flagged a tracked transfer of 996 BTC from a MARA-labeled wallet to Galaxy Digital, which could indicate further HPC development.