JPMorgan Puts a Number on Bitcoin for the First Time: 10% a Year, With a Big Caveat
Key Summary
J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions project a 10% annual return for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years, though the firm isn’t adding it to its main portfolio models.
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st5{fill:#58595B;} DecryptNewsMarketsJPMorgan Puts a Number on Bitcoin for the First Time: 10% a Year, With a Big CaveatJ. P. Morgan Asset Management’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions project a 10% annual return for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years, though the firm isn’t adding it to its main portfolio models. By Decrypt StaffEdited by Guillermo JimenezOct 20, 2026Oct 20, 20263 min readJPMorgan Chase & Co building in New York.
Image: Shutterstock/DecryptCreate an account to save your articles. Add on GoogleAdd Decrypt as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google. In brief J. P. Morgan Asset Management projected a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years, its first long-term forecast for the asset. That tops its forecasts for U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5%) and gold (5.5%), but comes with 55% annualized volatility.
The firm left Bitcoin out of its main portfolio models, citing volatility and unstable correlations, and called the currency debasement bull case “wide of the mark. ” Bitcoin just earned a spot in one of Wall Street’s most closely watched return forecasts, and it landed at the top of the table. J. P. Morgan Asset Management projected a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released Monday.