Is Moonshot AI Cheap at $50 Billion? Depends Who You Compare It To

Key Takeaways

• Moonshot AI has filed for a Hong Kong IPO after a private round valued it at $50 billion.
• DeepSeek is closing a funding round above 80 billion yuan ($11.9 billion).
• Investors are paying 50 to 74 times annualized revenue, a steeper multiple than OpenAI or Anthropic.
• The valuation of Moonshot AI depends on the peer group, with DeepSeek being more expensive.
• Growth and margins may soften the gap.

Market & Token Impact

• The valuation of Moonshot AI and DeepSeek may impact the market, with investors paying a premium for the Chinese labs.
• The IPOs of these labs may also impact the market, with a potential scarcity premium for Zhipu.
• The valuations assume that the scarcity premium will last, but the end of this period may lead to a more competitive market.

Broader Context & What's Next

• The IPOs of Moonshot AI and DeepSeek may set a new benchmark for the market, with a potential impact on the valuations of other labs.
• The Chinese regulators' data-security probe into both labs may also impact the market, with potential consequences for the IPOs.
• The growth and margins of Moonshot AI and DeepSeek may also impact the market, with potential implications for the valuations of other labs.
• The end of the scarcity premium may lead to a more competitive market, with potential implications for the valuations of these labs and other labs in the market.