Is Bitcoin Headed to $81,000? What On-Chain Data Shows
Key Summary
Bitcoin slipped below $85,000 this week, driven by weak trading volume and slow capital inflows. On-chain data from Glassnode suggests that the largest buy orders on Binance are at $81,000, which may be the next level to watch. The firm notes that existing holders must pay more for the price to rise, and that futures traders have been cautious, with open interest falling nearly 10% since September 22.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped back below $85,000, days after its first daily close above that level. The move came on weak trading volume, with new capital arriving slowly. According to Glassnode data, the largest buy orders on Binance are at $81,000, which may be the next level to watch.
On-Chain Activity
Glassnode notes that trading activity stayed light through the breakout, with combined spot and ETF volume at about $6.8 billion a day on a 7-day average. This is lower than on 9 in 10 days since January 2024. US buyers were quiet on spot markets as well, with the Coinbase Premium Index sitting at -0.056.
Capital Flows
Fresh capital also came in slowly, with ETF flows, stablecoin growth, and corporate treasury buying adding about $4.9 billion in the 30 days to October 5. Realized Cap, which values each coin at the price it last moved, rose about $12.8 billion in that time. Glassnode notes that new money therefore covers less than two-fifths of that rise, and that the rest is coins changing hands at higher prices among money already in the market.
Market Outlook
Some of those holders cashed out when Bitcoin first closed above $85,000 on October 4. That day, recent buyers holding under 155 days accounted for about 86% of exchange inflows. No day in the past year saw a higher share. Futures traders have also held back, with open interest falling nearly 10% since September 22. However, Santiment's exchange data points the other way, with 24,073 BTC in net exchange outflows on October 5, the largest since March 1. Exchange supply has dropped to about 6.50% of total supply. Glassnode reads this as bullish, since fewer coins sit ready for immediate sale.
Technical Analysis
On the Binance order book, Glassnode's data through October 7 shows large orders on both sides of the price. Below the price, the largest bids sit at $81,000 to $81,250 and have stood since October 3. Just above them, a liquidation cluster runs from about $81,700 to $83,300. Forced selling of leveraged longs there could add to any slide, Glassnode said. The next cluster down sits near $75,000. On the upside, Glassnode said a settled close above $85,500 would restore the level Bitcoin gave up this week. Beyond that sits a block of sell orders at $86,500 to $86,750. Above it, a short liquidation cluster runs from about $87,100 to $95,900, heaviest near $92,000. A push through those orders could force short sellers to close, adding to a move higher.