Goldman Models Show Yuan Could Reach 6.40 Per Dollar Within a Year

Goldman Sachs Expectations

Goldman Sachs expects China's yuan to strengthen to 6.40 per dollar within a year, from around 6.69 now. Its top currency strategist, Kamakshya Trivedi, ties the call to China's trade surplus, which reached $805.5 billion in the first eight months of 2026.

Market Impact

The dollar now buys 6.6922 yuan, down 4.30% since the start of 2026. The yuan has also gained more than 8% against the euro this year. Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens USD/CNY Year-To-Date Chart Showing the Dollar Falling From Near 7.00 to 6.6922 Yuan. Source: Google Finance

Analyst Commentary

Bloomberg ranks Goldman's yuan forecast among the few currencies positioned to keep rising while the dollar rebounds on geopolitics and inflation. Trivedi says policymakers may be growing more comfortable with further gains, partly because stable trade ties matter to them. He also notes that a stronger yuan makes returns on Chinese assets more attractive to foreign investors.

Global Reserve Currency

Trivedi links a stronger yuan to Beijing's goal of building a global reserve currency. Hong Kong supports this push with a yuan-denominated gold market. The city plans to grow its Shanghai-linked vault from 150 tonnes to over 2,000 tonnes within three years. Charles Chang of S&P Global Ratings said gold gives yuan holders another way to use the currency.

Forward Markets

Trivedi expects the yuan's climb to be gradual but sustained. The next test is whether forward markets move closer to Goldman's 6.40 target. Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights