Glassnode Suggests Bitcoin Local Bottom After Loss-Selling Spike Near $80K
Key Summary
Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, suggests that Bitcoin's recent loss-selling spike near $80,000 may mark a local bottom, based on past patterns of capitulation. The firm points to similar episodes in August and September, where selling at a loss was followed by a local bottom. Bitcoin traded around $82,400 on October 15 and $82,700 on October 16, after briefly slipping below $80,000.
What Glassnode saw on-chain
The loss-selling episode played out on October 15, 2026, as Bitcoin dipped near the $80,000 mark. Glassnode framed the activity as potential capitulation, the moment when holders throw in the towel and sell below what they paid.
Price action has cooperated so far
Price action has cooperated so far. Bitcoin traded around $82,400 on October 15 and $82,700 on October 16, after briefly slipping below $80,000 earlier in the month.
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ETF flows complicate the picture
US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $3 billion in inflows between September 21 and October 6, 2026. Since October 7, those funds have recorded roughly $760 million in outflows.
What this means for Bitcoin’s next move
The ETF cost basis near $81,500 is the first line to watch. With Bitcoin hovering only modestly above it, a sustained break lower would leave ETF holders underwater on average and bring the $77,500 to $78,000 zone into focus.
The levels traders are watching
Glassnode flagged several price zones that matter. The first is the cost basis for US spot Bitcoin ETF holders, near $81,500.
Beneath it sits the True Market Mean, another cost-basis level that Glassnode places at roughly $77,500 to $78,000.
On the upside, the firm sees continued resistance around $88,000.
Long-term holder realized losses have fallen about 85% from their peak on August 12, 2026, and that decline has come alongside a notable rise in profit-taking.
More than four coins are currently being spent at a profit for every one moved at a loss.