BeInCrypto • October 8th 2026, 3:45 AM
Fed Hike Odds Drop to 18%, Cuts at 0%: What a Hold Means for Bitcoin
Key Summary
Fed hike odds for October 28 have fallen to 18.3% after soft jobs and inflation data, while cuts remain at 0%. A hold is the base case, but it doesn't necessarily mean relief for Bitcoin. A delay in the hike may test traders' perception of its impact, with yields compounding the uncertainty.
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Market Impact
A hold would not mean relief for Bitcoin, despite lower hike odds. The Fed raised rates in September and a December hike remains in play. Bitcoin jumped after the weak jobs report, but yields complicate the picture. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.342% on October 1, its highest since early 2002.Why Hike Odds Are Fading
Soft jobs and inflation data have led to a decline in hike odds. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% in August, below forecasts. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams signaled no rush to act again. Cuts look remote for another reason, as most FOMC participants see another 2026 hike as likely.The Role of Yields
Analyst Benjamin Cowen argues that bond traders partly fear the Fed will tighten too little, which is pushing yields higher. He expects fear to peak around the October 28 meeting. A hold tests whether traders read a delayed hike as relief or as a larger bill later. With 16 of 18 Fed officials projecting another hike, October 14 inflation data may outweigh the decision itself.#Bitcoin#US#Crypto#SEC#FOMC