Market Positioning During the Oct. 16 Expiration Week

Deribit's options data shows the largest concentration of puts at the $80,000 strike, with outstanding contracts carrying about $188 million in underlying notional exposure. The $78,000 strike accounts for approximately $162 million, while the $76,000 strike accounts for around $101 million. Combined, the three levels represent nearly 35% of the $1.29 billion options expiry.

Bitcoin Market Positioning Analysis

Traders remain concerned about renewed selling pressure, although put open interest also includes contracts sold by investors seeking to collect premiums rather than exclusively buyers seeking protection. The concentration suggests that traders are positioning for a potential downturn in Bitcoin's price.

Volatility Expectations

Laevitas's Oct. 12 brief described a volatility curve that prices Wednesday's CPI as a non-event. Bitcoin's seven-day at-the-money implied volatility declined to 32.01% from approximately 34.5% a week earlier. This indicates that traders are less concerned about short-term price movements ahead of the CPI report.

CPI Report Outlook

The CPI report arrives Wednesday, Oct. 14, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, and market participants are expecting a potential increase in inflation. If the inflation rate accelerates, it could pressure Bitcoin toward the heavily populated $78,000–$80,000 put strikes. On the other hand, softer inflation could encourage a recovery toward the higher call concentrations.

Deribit's Maximum Pain Calculation

Deribit's maximum pain calculation stands at $83,000, indicating the settlement level that would minimize the aggregate intrinsic value of outstanding options based on current positioning. This suggests that traders are positioning for a potential price drop in Bitcoin.

Laevitas's 25-Delta Options Skew

Laevitas reported that Bitcoin's seven-day 25-delta options skew shifted from +1.98 to -2.40 over the past week, a 4.38-point reversal. This indicates that the market is unwinding from a call-bid extreme toward nominally put-bid pricing.