Citi predicts Bitcoin going back to $113,000. Here’s what the buying data shows
Key Summary
Citi has raised its Bitcoin forecast to $113,000, citing stronger activity, supportive macro conditions, and renewed ETF inflows. The bank expects $5 billion of crypto inflows over the next year, with the required price move being a 36% gain from the Oct. 7 reference price. However, the current data show thin trading and new money entering the market, leaving the sustainability of this recovery uncertain.
#
Market Analysis
Citi's $113,000 Bitcoin target is based on a 36% rise from the Oct. 7 reference price, keeping it below its previous record. However, the required move is equivalent to approximately 2.6% compounded monthly over twelve months, indicating a significant gain.
#
Buying Data
Onchain analytics firm Glassnode's fresh analysis shows new money entering the market alongside unusually thin trading. The bank raised its twelve-month Bitcoin forecast from $82,000 on Oct. 1, citing stronger activity, supportive macro conditions, and renewed ETF inflows.
#
ETF Inflows
Citi also forecast $5 billion of crypto inflows over the following year as advisers and brokerages gradually increase allocations. This horizon points to approximately autumn 2027.
#
Required Move
The calculation starts with the Bitcoin price quote on Oct. 7: $83,085. Reaching $113,000 requires a 36% gain, equivalent to approximately 2.6% compounded monthly over twelve months.
#
Market Capitalization
Holding the page's rounded circulating supply of 20.09 million BTC fixed, the target implies approximately $2.27 trillion in quoted market capitalization, an increase of about $601 billion.
#
Volatility
Glassnode's point-in-time data put one-year annualized realized volatility at 43.97% as of Oct. 6. Using logarithmic returns to match the volatility measure, the required gain is about 30.8%, or 0.70 times that annualized scale.
#
ETF Assumption
Citi published a historical association in its January 2025 outlook: roughly 4.7% Bitcoin returns associated with each $1 billion of ETF inflows. The bank said flows explained about 46% of price-action variance in that analysis.