Cardano's Price Resilience Hinges on OI Recovery Amid Falling Futures Exposure

Precedent & Market Context

Cardano's price has been under pressure since the start of the year, with a roughly 12% decline last week and a further 10% loss in October. The token's daily chart remains under pressure after breaking below trendline support near $0.2321.

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Main Event

Cardano held above $0.22 on Monday as buyers attempted to steady the price following a roughly 12% decline last week. ADA has lost more than 10% so far in October, while weakening derivatives activity and subdued large-wallet positioning suggest limited conviction behind a recovery.

CoinGlass data shows that Cardano futures open interest declined to $465.87 million on Monday from $549.14 million last week, a reduction of approximately 14.5% in the notional value of outstanding contracts.

The funding rate remained positive at 0.0032%, indicating that long positions were paying shorts in the tracked perpetual market. That modest positive reading suggests some traders are still positioned for a rebound.

Analysis & Market Impact

Falling ADA prices can reduce dollar-denominated open interest, while position closures and liquidations can also contribute to the decline. The loss of trendline support near $0.2321 adds to the weak structure, leaving several barriers above the current price.

Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish bias, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remaining below zero with a negative histogram, while the Relative Strength Index hovers around 41.

Implications & Outlook

A further price decline could put vulnerable long positions under pressure and trigger additional forced selling. Onchain figures suggest large holders have made only modest adjustments to their exposure.

According to Santiment data, wallets holding more than 100 million ADA accounted for 15.99% of circulating supply, slightly higher than 15.95% last week.

The cohort holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA represented 38.11% of supply, down from 38.27%.

The opposing movements provide a mixed picture rather than a clear accumulation trend. They also do not, by themselves, establish whether tokens were sold, transferred between wallets or moved across holding categories.

Combined with lower futures exposure, the figures offer limited evidence of renewed buying conviction.