Burry Sees Stocks Peaking in Nine Months, Focusing on Nasdaq and Chip Stocks
Key Summary
Michael Burry, a 'Big Short' investor, hints at a potential US stock market peak within nine months, concentrating his bearish bets on the Nasdaq-100 index and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. He has closed out his positions on some stocks, while maintaining his longer-term positions on Palantir and Oracle.
The Bearish Bet
The investor who famously called the 2008 housing crash is hinting that US stocks could hit a major peak within the next nine months. Michael Burry has consolidated nearly all of his bearish exposure into put options on the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).
A put option is a financial contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset at a set price (strike price) by a specific expiration date. The value of a put option goes up when the market price of the underlying asset drops below the strike price.
His Nasdaq-100 puts expire in April of 2027, while his semiconductor ETF puts run through June of 2027.
Burry says he is keeping his longer-dated puts on Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Oracle (ORCL) but closing out his other bearish positions.
The semiconductor ETF has surged more than 67% so far this year, led by Nvidia (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and AMD (AMD), which together make up 34.5% of its holdings. AMD alone is up more than 170% in 2026, while TSM has gained 43% and Nvidia has climbed 20%.
Burry previously closed his December 2026 Nvidia puts as time decay ate into the position.
Nine months from October also stretches into July of 2027, past both reported expiration dates, meaning a late peak could fit Burry's forecast but arrive too late for his contracts.
The report notes Burry has not disclosed position sizes or premiums paid, leaving it unclear whether his overall bearish bet has actually grown.
Market Implications
The move by Burry signals a growing bearish sentiment in the market, as investors become increasingly cautious about the stock market's performance. This could lead to a decline in stock prices and a shift in investor attitudes.
Conclusion
Burry's predictions and actions highlight the importance of monitoring market trends and sentiment, especially for investors looking to make informed decisions. As the market continues to evolve, it will be essential to stay informed and adapt to changing circumstances.