Bitwise Boosts Bitcoin Target to $1.6M
Key Summary
Bitwise lifted its 2036 Bitcoin price target from $1.3M to $1.6M, citing expanding addressable markets and growing institutional adoption despite a brutal 53% peak-to-trough decline.
Key Bullets
- Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin price target from $1.3M to $1.6M in its updated Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report published Tuesday.
- The revised model increases Bitcoin compound annual growth rate projections from 28.3% to 34.3% across institutional investment portfolios.
- Addressable store-of-value markets grew from $91.00T to $110.00T while institutional investment markets expanded from $216.00T to $303.00T.
- Bitcoin recorded a shallower 53% peak-to-trough decline during the recent downturn compared to historical bear market cycles.
Bitwise Raises Long-Term Target to $1.6M
Bitwise raised its 10-year Bitcoin price target from $1.3M to $1.6M by 2036 according to the firm Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report released Tuesday by CIO Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen. Bitcoin fell more than 50% between October 2025 and June 2026, touching a low below $59,000. Yet the revised model increased the projected compound annual growth rate from 28.3% to 34.3%. Liquidity vanished temporarily.
Hougan stated that preliminary data analysis initially suggested slashing the forecast to $1M or lower due to persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical conflict. However, the underlying macroeconomic math delivered a completely different outcome for the portfolio. The model adjusted higher.
Expanding Addressable Markets Drive Higher Valuation
The higher price target stems directly from expanding addressable market projections and higher anticipated adoption rates. Bitwise increased its estimate of the global store-of-value market over the next decade from $91.00T to $110.00T based on mounting investor anxiety over fiat currency debasement. The projection for the institutional investment market climbed from $216.00T to $303.00T. Capital flows shifted rapidly.
Wealth management platforms including Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch integrated spot exposure rather than retreating from the asset class during the selloff. Central banks and sovereign wealth funds steadily inched closer to official allocations. Order books absorbed the shock.
Market Resilience Outweighs Slower ETF Inflows
Bitwise kept its underlying assumptions regarding Bitcoin share capture rates unchanged from previous iterations despite the broader asset expansion. Hougan acknowledged that gold captured the lion share of recent safe-haven inflows while spot ETF accumulation slowed down. Bitcoin correlation with gold climbed visibly during the downturn. Volatility metrics improved.
The 53% peak-to-trough drop proved significantly shallower than historical bear market liquidations observed in prior cycles. Institutional balance sheets continued adding exposure throughout the drawdown despite stagnant retail sentiment. The structural bid remained intact.
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