Bitcoin’s Next Move: Will It Hit $98,000 or Drop to $77,000 First?

Market Analysis

Bitcoin is trading within striking distance of two critical price levels that analysts say could send it sharply in opposite directions, and the signals from ETF flows, options traders, and on-chain data are pointing toward the same outcome.

Key Findings

• Bitcoin is trading about $300 above a critical threshold that could trigger a decline to $77,000.
• Bitcoin is approximately $4,400 below the point that could launch a rise to $98,000.
• A move toward $77,000 appears more likely right now, given the current price of $82,969 and the 1.5% decline in the last 24 hours.

Expert Insights

Jesse Marre, a senior portfolio manager at the Hilbert Group, identified this range and stated, “Bitcoin has been trading in a range, and the top of it at 87,400 is the level to watch. A break above could open a move toward 94,000 to 98,000. A drop below 82,700 would likely take it to 77,000.”

Market Dynamics

Traders pay close attention to these price edges because many orders tend to cluster around them. For instance, some investors place stop-loss orders—automatic sell orders set below the identified support level—to minimize losses. Conversely, buyers looking to take advantage of a breakout set orders above the resistance level.

On-Chain Data

The research team at Bitfinex Alpha arrives at similar levels to Marre’s through its own on-chain data analysis. Their report, dated October 7, places Bitcoin’s yearly opening price for 2026 at $87,722, which is slightly above the current trading price and close to Marre’s upper boundary. The report shows that nearly 769,000 BTC—about $64 billion—was purchased between $84,000 and $84,500. This price range includes the largest volume of purchases seen at any price. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just under this level.