Bitcoin Trails S&P 500 Despite Winning Sessions
Key Summary
Bitcoin posted gains on 10 of 18 trading days in October against the S&P 500, but larger losing sessions left the asset down 4.25% for the month. BlackRock's IBIT fund dominated capital access, drawing $5.7Bwhile rival issuers suffered net redemptions.
Key Bullets
- Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 on ten of eighteen sessions through October twenty-sixth but dropped four point twenty-five percent overall.
- BlackRock accumulated ninety-six percent of net spot ETF inflows since August while competing funds experienced heavy redemptions.
- Stablecoin supply hovered twelve point seven billion dollars below its May peak with the Coinbase premium remaining negative.
- Derivatives markets showed downside protection demand as options twenty-five-delta skew climbed to ten point four percent.
BlackRock Commands Spot ETF Inflows
Bitcoin fell 4.25% across 18 trading sessions ending Oct. 26 while the S&P 500 gained 0.33%, according to data compiled by Farside Investors. Winning margins failed to offset deeper drawdowns during the monthly stretch. Bitcoin outperformed US equities on 10 of those 18 sessions for a 55.6% daily win rate. Average daily gains reached 0.71% on winning days. Average daily losses hit 1.44% on losing days, doubling the positive sessions.
BlackRock's IBIT fund captured 96.3% of all net inflows into US spot Bitcoin products since Aug. 3. Farside Investors fund-level data shows IBIT brought in $5.7Bwhile all competing funds combined added just $221M. Rival products shed more than $1Bduring October. The category as a whole posted $203Min net outflows. Competing issuers bled $59.4Mper day while IBIT pulled in $48.1Mdaily.
Derivatives And Stablecoins Show Softness
Glassnode weekly reporting places cumulative spot volume delta at negative $80.5Malongside active addresses near 615,200. Futures open interest hovered near $37.5Bacross major centralized venues. Stablecoin supply sits $12.7Bbelow the peak recorded in May. The seven-day Coinbase premium stayed negative through October according to Coinbase Institutional telemetry. Regulated access bids outpaced spot market demand.
Options markets priced higher demand for defensive positioning. Options 25-delta skew climbed to 10.4% from 8.9% over the monitoring period. One-month implied volatility hovered near 35%. That metric sits inside the bottom 7th percentile of readings recorded since 2019. A one-standard-deviation move covers roughly 4.8% over seven days from the Oct. 26 close of $80,007.
Cost Basis Ranges And Downside Risks
Coinbase Institutional placed the average ETF cost basis near $81,300. Continued inflows at IBIT combined with a return of capital to rival funds could push prices toward a $82,500 to $84,400 target band. Macro easing and a softer dollar are required for any run toward $88,000. Higher-for-longer interest rates threaten that thesis.
Persistent macroeconomic headwinds and fading inflows at IBIT risk a breakdown below the $77,000 threshold. A breach of that zone opens a path toward $73,000. Total realized capitalization metrics show new capital inflows covered less than two-fifths of the 30-day rise. Existing coins simply changed hands at higher valuations.
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