Bitcoin Rangebound as Midterms Approach, US Inflation Soars

Market Analysis

Analysts see Bitcoin oscillating between $80,000 and $88,000, with weakening ETF demand and the Federal Reserve's next decision threatening to break the range. Two hot inflation reports in two days resulted in Bitcoin falling below $80,000 on Oct. 15. September CPI accelerated to 3.7% from 3.4%, and producer prices jumped 1.3% on the month, the largest rise since March 2022 and more than double the forecast in most surveys. Can-Luca Köymen, investment strategist at Sygnum, said in a note that the bank's base case is a range-bound move into the midterms. Kömen says options price roughly $80,000 to $87,000 over the coming month, and on-chain cost-basis data draws much the same box. Support sits at $80,000 to $81,500, where the average US spot ETF buyer breaks even, and resistance sits near $88,000, the break-even for buyers from six to 12 months ago. Below $80,000, the next floor is around $78,000, the average cost basis of active investors. Glassnode's Oct. 14 report estimates the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin held by US spot ETFs near $81,500, which describes the funds' aggregate holdings, a measure separate from each shareholder's personal entry price. It puts the six-to-12-month cohort's cost basis near $88,000 and the True Market Mean near $78,000, and it finds the largest concentrated Binance spot bids around $80,000. Bitcoin dipped below the ETF cost basis on Oct. 8 and Oct. 13 and closed back above it both days. That points to recurring demand at the zone and gives the range an identifiable economic reason. Kömen said thin spot volume makes price easier to move, 'but funding has cooled and recent long liquidations have already cleared much of the excess leverage, so a self-feeding sell-off is less likely unless $80,000 breaks cleanly.' Glassnode's data supports that read, with modeled liquidation levels around the current price down more than 20% in a week and long-term holder realized losses about 85% below their Aug. 12 peak. CoinMarketCap research reported that Bitcoin futures open interest fell 6% over the past week, while broader crypto open interest rose 15%. Glassnode shows liquidation clusters just below $80,000 and near $88,000, so reduced leverage lowers the expected severity of a shock while a clean break of support remains a trigger. Lewis Huang, analyst at Bitget, framed the same line in price terms in a note: 'A confirmed close below it could signal a breakdown from the current consolidation range and increase the risk of further near-term downside.' Glassnode counted nearly $3 billion of ETF inflows from Sept. 21 to Oct. 6, and Farside Investors’ data since then shows a reversal. A net $859 million flowed out over six sessions from Oct. 7 through Oct. 14, including $261.4 million on Oct. 14. Bitcoin is holding near a cost-basis zone while redemptions hit the vehicles tied to that zone. Either remaining investors and spot bids are absorbing the selling, or the market grows more vulnerable as new demand fades. Kömen said what breaks the range 'is a catalyst.'