CryptoSlate • October 7th 2026, 4:35 PM
Bitcoin price has risen 84% since January 2024 while Treasury yields climbed
Key Summary
Bitcoin's price has increased by 84% since January 2024, despite rising US Treasury yields, which can make speculative crypto exposure less justifiable. A comprehensive analysis of daily changes since January 2017 found weak linear relationships between Bitcoin returns and yield changes, with no clear causal link established. The relationship between Bitcoin and yields varies over time and is influenced by multiple factors.
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Historical Relationship Analysis
A comparison of 2,435 matched daily changes since January 2017 found weak linear relationships between Bitcoin returns, nominal and real Treasury yield changes, and dollar-index returns. The daily relationships also remained weak in the post-ETF trading period.Post-ETF Trading Period Analysis
The post-ETF sample covers 682 matched daily changes from Jan. 11, 2024, through Oct. 5, 2026. The later window follows the SEC's historical approval of spot Bitcoin ETP shares on January 10, 2024. BlackRock's IBIT began trading on Nasdaq on January 11, 2024.Analysis Findings
Neither yield measure had a strong negative daily relationship with Bitcoin returns in the later sample. Bitcoin daily returns versus Since January 2017 Post-ETF trading Ten-year nominal yield changes -0.004 +0.054 Ten-year real yield changes -0.047 +0.042 ICE DXY returns -0.098 -0.089Limitations
The comparison uses Coinbase Bitcoin observations, nominal Treasury yields and real Treasury yields from FRED, alongside DXY observations distributed by Yahoo Finance. Observations were matched by date, with missing data omitted rather than filled. Returns between consecutive common dates can span weekends or holidays. Closing times differ across the series, so the comparison does not use synchronized intraday observations.#Bitcoin#US#Crypto#SEC#Economics