Bitcoin monthly ‘new money’ inflows near $5B as BTC price rally stalls

Market Analysis

Bitcoin's recent price gains have stalled despite significant new money inflows, according to Glassnode data, which suggests that existing holders are driving the market's upside rather than fresh capital. New money inflows totaled around $4.9 billion in the 30 days to Oct. 5, with existing holders behind much of Bitcoin's recent upside. The rallies of 2024 and 2025 showed a similar mix, but on far larger inflows. Bitcoin's realized cap rose by $12.8 billion, but new money covers less than two fifths of that rise, with the rest being coins changing hands at higher prices among money already in the market.

Technical Analysis

Recent rallies in BTC/USD have shown the same divergence since the ETFs launched in January 2024. Currently, however, conditions are different, with inflows still modest compared to short-term realized-cap gains. Since Sept. 21, Bitcoin has attempted to rise beyond $87,000 four times. Each of these attempts failed as buyers faced thickening overhead ask liquidity on exchange order books. BTC/USD circled $83,000 at the time of writing on Thursday, down 1% month-to-date.

Market Sentiment

Increased profit-taking among recent buyers over the weekend, when Bitcoin saw its first weekly close above $85,000 since January, has been flagged by Glassnode. Of all the coins sent to exchanges that day, about 86% came from short-term holders, those holding for less than 155 days, moving coins at a profit. That is the highest share of any day in the past year; on a typical day it is under two fifths. Short-term holders are traditionally considered to be more sensitive to price volatility. The cohort remains in net profit, with its aggregate cost basis, also known as realized price, still at around $78,250 as of Oct. 7, per data from CryptoQuant.