Bitcoin Halving Clock Hits 62%: Is the Bear Market Over?
Key Summary
Bitcoin has completed 62% of its current halving period, a stage where past bear markets bottomed or came close. The current cycle fits past patterns, but with an exception, as the 62% mark has arrived with Bitcoin still near $6,000 in the past. The halving clock suggests the bear market may be over if the July low holds, but a break below it could point to a 2018-style final leg.
Current State of the Halving Clock
Bitcoin has completed 62% of its current halving period, a stage where past bear markets bottomed or came close. The network sits at block 970,344, according to the Bitcoin.org countdown. The fifth halving triggers at block 1,050,000, which is 79,656 blocks away. At the average pace of one block every 10 minutes, that points to April 2028. The event will cut the block reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Measured in blocks, the current period is 62% complete.
Bitcoin Halving History
Historically, though, timing has stayed consistent. Bitcoin halving countdown showing 62% progress through the current period. In the first cycle, that point arrived in early 2015. BTC set its bear market low that January. In the third cycle, the mark landed in late 2022. The bottom near $15,500 followed in November 2022, after the FTX collapse. Other analysts have also tried to time the cycle bottom using past patterns.
Pattern Analysis
Analyst The Rational Root mapped the 62% mark across all four halving cycles in a chart shared on X. In the first cycle, that point arrived in early 2015. BTC set its bear market low that January. In the third cycle, the mark landed in late 2022. The bottom near $15,500 followed in November 2022, after the FTX collapse. Other analysts have also tried to time the cycle bottom using past patterns. The current cycle has already rebounded from a July low near $57,800.
Market Analysis
Trader Jesse Olson compared price action across all four post-halving periods, with earlier cycles scaled to the 2024 halving price: “Every top formed prior to 550 days. Every bottom formed near or before 900 days.” The current cycle fits that pattern so far. BTC set its record above $125,000 on October 6, 2025, around day 534. Today is day 900. Olson’s chart also shows BTC breaking above the downtrend line drawn from that peak.
Potential Outcomes
However, the pattern has an exception. In 2018, the 62% mark arrived with BTC still near $6,000. Price then slid to about $3,200 by mid-December. That final leg cut its value nearly in half. Olson’s chart adds a second warning. After breaking their downtrend lines, two of three past cycles pulled back to retest them. A similar retest now could drag BTC back toward its July low. Binance Research found that comparable rebounds often revisited their lows. Diminishing returns also reshape the picture. This cycle’s drawdown reached roughly 54%, against 77% or more in past bear markets. Smaller swings have not broken the timing, though. If the July low near $57,800 holds, the halving clock suggests the bear market may be over. A break below it would point to a 2018-style final leg.