Bitcoin Enters Bull Market as Four-Year Cycle Fades
Key Summary
Despite recent market sell-off and liquidations, Bitcoin has entered a bull market according to analysis of its 50-week moving average, indicating a gradual loss of strength in its traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle. Future rallies may deliver smaller gains, followed by shorter downturns. Bitcoin's recovery above its 50-week moving average and MVRV ratio suggest the longer-term recovery remains intact.
Technical Indicators and Bull Market Signals
The analysis of Bitcoin's 50-week moving average shows that it has reclaimed the level near $78,800 in September and traded above $86,000 in early October, indicating a potential bull market transition. The MVRV ratio, which compares current market value with average price investors paid, moved above its annual average of 1.44, suggesting the longer-term recovery remains intact despite recent selling.
Long-term Recovery and Market Strength
Bitcoin's Historic Crashes Are Getting Smaller BloFin's most significant finding concerns the declining severity of Bitcoin's market cycles. The bear market from October 2025 to June 2026 was approximately 53% shorter than previous bear markets, with trough-to-peak returns declining from roughly 530 times in the earliest cycle to eight times in the most recent one.
Institutional Investors and Market Cycles
Institutional investors are changing Bitcoin's cycle, according to BloFin Research. Longer-term ownership, such as the 16.64 million BTC that remained unmoved for at least 155 days, has contributed to the decline in market severity. However, recent ETF withdrawals show that institutional demand can still weaken sharply during market stress.
What Happens Next
For traders, a sustained move below the current 50-week moving average would weaken the bullish signal. A break beneath $58,525 would challenge the proposed cycle bottom. For now, Bitcoin's longer-term recovery indicators remain positive.