Benjamin Cowen Says Yields Could Fall After Midterms With a Potential Boost for Bitcoin

Key Takeaways

• The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to peak before mid-November, potentially easing pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
• The Fed's soft inflation and labor market, as well as the recent weak jobs report, may contribute to this easing of pressure.
• However, long-term rates are still expected to climb, potentially keeping pressure on assets with no yield, such as Bitcoin.

Market & Token Impact

• A potential fall in yields could lead to a boost for Bitcoin, as it has reacted to yields recently.
• The recent jobs report showed just 29,000 new jobs, which may have eased fears of further Fed hikes.
• However, even a local peak in yields may bring limited relief, and long-term rates are still expected to climb.

Broader Context & What's Next

• The Fed's interest rate decisions are closely watched, and the October 28 meeting is expected to be significant.
• The odds of an October hike fell from 64% to 17.7% in a week, indicating a decrease in market expectations.
• However, the Fed's soft inflation and labor market, as well as the recent weak jobs report, may contribute to a decrease in interest rates in mid-November.
• Long-term rates are still expected to climb, potentially keeping pressure on assets with no yield, such as Bitcoin.