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Tokenomics & Market Outlook

The average altcoin has gained 10% more than Bitcoin since the primary cryptocurrency's bottom, but this is far removed from the kind of broad outperformance associated with previous alt seasons. Most altcoins still trail Bitcoin, with only a few strong coins making the market feel hotter than the data supports.

Market Mechanics & Token Dynamics

Liu pointed to the Total 2-to-Bitcoin ratio, which compares the market value of cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin with BTC, and described the chart as 'very flat'. This suggests that the market is not yet showing signs of a full-on alt season.

Price Action

Bitcoin itself has been stuck, with a market cap of $1.72 trillion and a nearly 58% share of the total crypto market. Larger altcoins have been sluggish over 24 hours, with ETH holding above $2,700 and XRP sitting at $1.50. BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, and Chainlink are slightly lower, and RAIN was one of the biggest losers in 24 hours.

The Bigger Picture

Liu warned traders against waiting for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high before looking at altcoins. He noted that this pattern worked in 2017 and late 2020, but failed in 2024 when Bitcoin broke its previous record while many altcoins continued to lose ground against it.

Industry Implications

Liu's approach is to trade individual altcoin rallies rather than wait for a broad signal. He also called $83,000 Bitcoin's daily pivot, with a break below that possibly sending it toward bull market support at $78,000, while holding above leaves room to move past $87,000.