AI Forecast Warns of Volatility Ahead of US Midterm Elections

Market Overview

Grok, the AI chatbot developed by xAI, has forecasted Bitcoin's price to close around $85,000 on November 3, 2026, the day of the US midterm elections. This prediction is based on Bitcoin's current price, fund flows, and historical election data.

Fund Flows and Historical Data

Bitcoin has dipped 2.7% in the past week but gained 7.4% over the last month. In just two weeks, it hit a high of $87,249 on October 2, then fell to $80,000 on October 8. Grok considered the short-term holder cost basis, which is around the low-to-mid $70,000s, and identified resistance in the mid-to-high $80,000s.

Uncertainty and Volatility

Grok's main scenario suggests a slow upward trend, tempered by caution ahead of the elections and the historical trend of weak fourth quarters during midterm years. However, it noted the uncertainty of this trend, as past cycle bottoms and the 2022 exchange failure complicate the picture. Volatility is a key reason Grok maintains its close-to-current price forecast. Options traders gauge implied volatility, or expected price movement, using contracts that let them buy or sell in the future at a set price.

Confidence Range

Grok provided an 80% confidence range for Bitcoin's price on November 3, estimating it between $72,000 and $97,000. The lower end of this range reflects a possible test of short-term holder support, while the upper end suggests a potential breakout above recent highs.