October 16th 2026, 9:35 PM
AI Costs to Skyrocket by Fivefold by 2028, Gartner Warns
Key Summary
Gartner has forecasted a fivefold rise in AI agent costs by 2028, contradicting the trend of cheaper units. The research firm attributes the anomaly to a combination of improving foundational model economics, the deployment of more powerful models for complex applications, and a pronounced jump in token consumption from multistep agent workflows. This forecast highlights the challenges companies face in capturing a return on AI investment, with recommended strategies including inference tiering, multimodal orchestration, and vigilant cost monitoring.
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The Inference Paradox
According to Gartner, the cost of running AI agents is getting cheaper to run, while the cost of running them is getting more expensive to run. This phenomenon, known as the 'Inference Paradox,' is characterized by a split between unit economics and total spend. Per-token costs for foundational models keep dropping, but the total cost of getting real work done with those models keeps rising.The Three Drivers
Gartner identifies three forces behind the cost anomaly:- \1\1\1
Recommended Strategies
Gartner frames the paradox as a direct challenge for product leaders and anyone responsible for capturing a return on AI investment. To address this challenge, the firm recommends three approaches:- \1\1\1
Conclusion
Gartner's forecast highlights the complexities of the AI landscape and the need for companies to carefully consider their AI investments. By adopting the recommended strategies, companies can mitigate the risks associated with the Inference Paradox and ensure a successful AI journey.#AI#ArtificialIntelligence#Gartner#InferenceParadox